We won't win West Virginia. But we can do the following:

Motivate the African-American base to the point where in numerous states (Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Virginia), only 1/3rd of whites will be needed to win the state.

It basically breaks down like this.

Places with lots of whites and few blacks and Obama is still favored positively; there aren't racial tensions.

Places with lots of blacks and few whites favor Obama; they feel he's a glass ceiling breaker, moreso than women feel Senator Clinton is. I'm not afraid to admit it is racially based but it's positive, not negative.

Places with an even number of blacks and whites, will mean a harder time for Senator Obama - whites feel there are racial tensions and it shows. Blacks vote for Senator Obama and whites for Senator Clinton. We'll have to see if whites continue to vote against Senator Obama in those places.

Then again, there are just demographics that favor Senator Clinton. More conservative areas, not conservative states, meaning outside the metropolitan areas.

More or less a reverse-Bradley effect or whatever you want to call it.

and found that if AA's make up more than 42% of the electorate the voters based on race broke in his favor, less than that and hillary got a boost from race based voting.

I would wager than in NC it was pretty close to even as for who it helped and it hurt Obama in IN and WV.

Clinton wins every single state where the third number is 47 or more.  Obama wins every single state where the third number is 46 or less.

Finally, some helpful racial-issue dialogue!

I think we have to also account for the fact that, in the primaries, there are two factors at play:

* Democrats gave up being the racist party years ago with the Dixiecrats, so they may under-represent the racially-interested negative constituency.

...countered by...

* The crossover voters who (whether Limbaugh-inspired or not) voted in the Democratic primary because they wanted to make sure a black person did not become president.  

As an aside, Rush Limbaugh did run a musical segment "Barack the Magic Negro" sung to "Puff the Magic Dragon" several times, so they were, in fact, actively courting the racist demographic for Operation Chaos.

Regardless, when the general opens up, we're going to have to probably deal with a larger racist percentage (unless the second factor above totally outperforms the first).  One thing we have discovered is that Obama's performance among uneducated whites in Democratic primaries anywhere is approximately 25%-30%.  That's going to take a lot of work to overcome, and I really hope that we can rely on surrogates like Edwards or the Clintons to really campaign hard in Appalachia and the white parts of the Deep South to convince them that the message is the right one for them (economics and the war will be our strongest weapons here).