Updated: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36

by VAAlex, Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:08:05 PM EST

Oh, how I've been waiting for this poll to come out. I've seen it diaried and have seen brandished a SUSA poll from a weeks back showing Barack Obama leading McCain by 2 points, 48-46. Since this has since become a talking point, let's now look at updated numbers from Rasmussen:

Clinton 55
McCain 36

Obama 51
McCain 39

Now, since we were using one single weeks-old poll to selectively argue that he's not electable in Massachusetts, we can now argue that he is electable in Massachusetts, right? Right?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/massachusetts/election _2008_massachusetts_presidential_electio n

Update [2008-4-25 18:22:45 by VAAlex]:: Thanks to a comment below, I am including trend lines for previous polls. Although the only poll that trends is SUSA, only Rasmussen and SUSA have polled general election in this state. http://www.pollster.com/08-MA-Pres-GE-MvO.php


Poll
Do you doubt Obama will carry Massachusetts?
Yes
No

Votes: 19
Results : Vote Link : Polls


Tags: Massachussetts, general, election (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 48 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Rasmussen is not reliable.
sorry!
by darlene25 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:12:39 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

How so?


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:13:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Do not underestimate the reality distorting powers of some among Senator Clinton's supporters. I'm confident they will find a way to use this poll as definitive proof that Senator Obama is unelectable.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:14:05 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Patrick & Obama are two different people.  The good people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts are smart enough to realize that.  Why aren't you?


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:21:09 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

The good people of MA are smart enough to realize they are getting the Axelrod spin AGAIN.

and that is why Hillary won here in double digits.

thank you very much.


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:41:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

How is this poll getting the Axelrod spin? ... I really don't get your point. This was not a campaign poll.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

not the poll.  The promotion of a candidate.  Axelrod was Patrick's manager and he tested his theory about change with Patrick (and I must say, Patrick is 1000 times better at speeches than Obama)

MA residents overwhelmingly voted Patrick in - he beat Healy by 25%.  And look where we are now - Patrick is busy writing his book and his pet project, the casinos, are scrapped.  We got shit in MA, because WE believed in hope and change we can believe in, blah, blah, blah

MA residents voted FOR Hillary, not Obama, because we had heard that same old song & dance with Patrick and the SAME campaign (Axelrod)

you don't have to like it, but it is a fact.  The same old rhetoric was used here - FIRST - in MA, to test the waters for Axelrod's next project.


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

So, in other words, you're using one similarity between two distinct individuals to say that all the faults of one will also be true of the other?

By that logic, then governor George W Bush would be a great President because he's a governor from the South, just like Bill Clinton!

I'll let YOU defend that one.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 04:34:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Yes they're different people, but to deny there are unusually strong similarities in the style and rhetoric of Patrick and Obama is putting your head in the sand.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 05:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

I'm not saying there aren't strong similarities.  There are common themes in many campaigns, including Clinton's, and "change" is one of them.  

Great speakers have done things big and small, good and evil, and the only similarity might be that they used their speaking gift to help achieve those things.  But beyond that, they span the gulf between MLK and Hitler, and we can't simply assume that because Obama and Patrick have similar rhetoric that they'll Obama will be the failure that Patrick is perceived, by many, to be.  

My head's not in the sand.  I'm just not willing to take one similarity between two individuals and to claim it makes them equivalent in their abilities to govern effectively.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 08:40:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

But their similarities are by design rather than by chance.  While the average voter won't care who Axelrod is, the fact remains that both Obama and Patrick's campaaigns are crafted by him and use the same themes.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Was Axelrod working for Obama back in 2004 when he spoke to the convention?  Because themes such as uniting America were prevalent in that speech, just as they still are.  

I'm not aware that Axelrod was w/ Obama then.  I suppose I could be wrong.  But if not it's tough to argue that he crafted everything about Obama's message and campaign themes.    


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes (none / 0)

Axelrod was a senior advisor on Obama's 2004 Senate run.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:59:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes (none / 0)

Well, there ya go.  I guess I wasn't as anal about political details back then.

Either way, the point is the same.  Just because Patrick is perceived as a bad governor, doesn't mean we can apply those same expectations to Obama.  


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 12:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

I live in Massachusetts and no one here knows or cares who Axelrod is or what he likes to spin.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:58:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

then I guess everyone you know doesn't follow politics.

my god, everyone I know knows about the Axelrod -> Patrick -> Obama connection and how we were the testing grounds for that type of BS rhetoric.


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:01:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

People I know care about the sh!tty housing market, insane home heating oil prices, insane health care costs, and insane college tuition costs.  Who someone's campaign adviser is strangely ranks pretty low on the give a sh!t scale.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:06:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Yes, they do CARE about those things.  And they also note that the person that they elected in 2006 had that "change we can believe in" hope message that turned out to be BOGUS and CRAP.

and that is why MA voted overwhelmingly for Hillary in the primaries and Obama may lose this state in Nov, because we "heard" it before.

met the new boss, same as the old boss.....


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:35:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts (none / 0)

then I guess everyone you know doesn't follow politics.

my god, everyone I know knows about the Axelrod -> Patrick -> Obama connection and how we were the testing grounds for that type of BS rhetoric.


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Actually, the good people of Massachusetts chose Clinton.  You might do well to consider that while you praise their intelligence.

Patrick and Obama are two different people.

But

Patrick and Obama are the same advertising product.  That is what folks in MA learned.  They will not purchase an Axelrod product again.


by bobbank on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:48:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

This has nothing to do with Axelrod and everything to do with the fact that Massachusetts will not elect a Republican for President in 2008.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:49:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

MA voted republican before in GE's. It is not unheard of.  And since MA has heard the same, sad, tired rhetoric of Obama via Patrick and we got shit since we've voted Patrick in, it could very well be that it goes red this year.  


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:58:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

I don't think so. I doubt it will go red, but beyond that argument of what I think -- and what has been borne out by the polls -- I don't think in history has a state flipped based on shared speechwriters between Presidential candidate and governor of the state.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:00:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

no, it is not just the "shared" speechwriters - it is the EXACT same message.  

and fool me once, shame on you
fool me twice, shame on me.


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

So Patrick and Obama are really just puppets saying what Axelrod tells them to and the good people of Massachusetts will realize this and vote for McCain in November.  Do you really believe that?  I have more faith in the average voter.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:49:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

$50 to the Jimmy Fund says MA stays blue in November?  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:08:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

all depends on who the nominee is, now doesn't it?


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:36:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Not to me.  I think both will beat McCain in November like a rented mule.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:43:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

MA has voted Republican before, and they had a Republican governor before Patrick - who by the way did a much better job, both parties agree.

They will not purchase another Axelrod product.  I look at Massachusetts as a kind-of Cassandra.


by bobbank on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

1984 was the last time MA voted for a Republican presidential candidate.  What similarities do you see between 1984 and 2008?  I don't see many.  

Few people know who Axelrod is so it isn't likely he will swing many voters.  

Also, few people here miss Mitt Romney.  Deval has made some mistakes but we don't miss a Republican in the state house.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (2.00 / 1)

I don't think that finding similarities between 1984 and 2008 has anything to do with my point.

Patrick's incompetency has been the frequent subject of local news, and in fact the local media surrounding Boston is one of the only places I have seen point out the obvious parallels between Patrick's quest for political office and Barack's.

It's hard not to see similarties, really.  The speeches are word-for-word verbatim, so is the stubborn insistance to never talk about specifics, and so is the striking lack of political experience.  They are both Axelrod products as far as I'm concerned.  Barack has a few more features and fancier packaging.


by bobbank on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 06:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Axelrod products?  Do Obama & Patrick have any say in their campaign platforms or do they just do what Axelrod tells them?


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 06:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

You'll have to ask them.  They deliver the exact same speeches, down to the word, though.


by bobbank on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 08:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Do you live in Massachusetts?  

I hope not because you have no idea what is happening here.  People are not thrilled with Deval but they are happy Mitt's girl Muffy isn't running the statehouse.  There is no way McCain wins in November.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Yes, I live in MA.  Sure, we didn't want Healy, but we neither want Patrick.

Healy was never promoted by Mitt, by the way.  She tired to stand on her own merits, she wasn't a hardliner conservative like Mitt, but with the "change you can believe in" shit message that we swallowed, she didn't have a chance (not that I wanted to vote for her)


by colebiancardi on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Look at Rasmussen's Report Card... (none / 0)

and then think about the reliability of the numbers.  It's always funny when Obama supporters rely on the right wing pollster to buttress their argument.


by unabashed dem on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:33:56 PM EST

Re: Look at Rasmussen's Report Card... (none / 0)

I'm not an "Obama supporter", I was calling out the fact that it's absolutely ridiculous to think that ANY Democrat won't carry Massachusetts, and was disappointed that it was being used as a legitimate talking point.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:35:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look at Rasmussen's Report Card... (none / 0)

Right because this right wing pollster has every reason in the world to show that Obama beats McCain soundly in MA in the MA GE.  That somehow helps McCain, right?


by reggie23 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Did you guys seen the new Pennsylvania Rasmussen matchups?  Hillary beats McCain but Obama loses to McCain.  It's looking likely that Obama would lose Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio in November.


by karajan72 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:40:02 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Obama consistently polls above McCain in PA. One poll, which your fellow Clinton supporters are saying isn't even reliable to being with above, shows him slightly down and now all of he sudden it's "likely he would lose PA..."

He won't lose PA. Mark it down.


by PSUdan on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you just made that up (none / 0)

Here's all the 2008 polls pitting McCain v. Obama in Pennsylvania

JM +1
JM +8
JM +10
BO +12
BO +7
JM +7
BO +4
JM +5
JM +1
JM +4
JM +3
JM +5
BO +2
JM +1
JM +3
BO +10
BO +1
JM +8

Obama's 2 best polls in this list (a +12 and a +10) were both Rasmussen, the same pollster showing him -1 today.  Tossing out those two, McCain has led fairly consistently.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 12:10:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

The difference is in the margin of error.  

McCain 44/43 Obama
Clinton 47/42 McCain

4 point margin of error, Clinton is up 4 vs Obama, and McCain is down two in the Clinton matchup, so it could just be noise.

One point 6 months out is not exactly an overwhelming hurdle.  I'd rather both Democrats were up by 10, but PA is definitely winnable and it looks like either candidate would have to fight for it.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Polls reported within 1 week of super Tuesday for Massachusetts :  Link  

Rasmussen:  Clinton 43 / Obama 37  (+6)
SUSA:           Clinton 56 / Obama 39  (+17)

Actual Primary Result:  Clinton 56 / Obama 41  (+15)

I hope this is good enough evidence in support of the opinion that SUSA is excellent and Rasmussen is unreliable as far as polling Massachusetts voters is concerned.


by Hurdy Gurdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:03:56 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

since we were using one single weeks-old poll to selectively argue that he's not electable in Massachusetts,

Here are all the Obama v. McCain polls that existed prior to today:

BO +2
BO +7
Even
BO +7
BO +2
JM +5
BO +2
JM +3

The SUSA BO+2 poll was one of a long series of polls showing him in trouble in MA.  If this Rasmussen poll is for real, then it's good news for him.  But to say the concerns about him in MA are due to selectively picking one poll is completely false.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 03:53:00 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

Can you link to all these polls so I can update the diary?


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 04:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

http://www.pollster.com/08-MA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 04:58:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

I'll update the diary, but it doesn't change the fact that only one poll -- SUSA -- consistently puts Obama so close to MoE. But then again, only one other poll -- Rasmussen -- puts it healthily outside MoE. Good on ya.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 06:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Massachusetts General: O51/C55-M39/M36 (none / 0)

This is Massachusetts and the worst case scenario is  low turnout.

Lest we forget Patrick largely won because of the complete collapse of favorite Tom Reilly.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 04:06:46 PM EST


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